Impact of infection control measures on the prevalence of CPKP colonization in an endemic setting.
One CPKP colonized patient enters the surgical unit on day 0 and the only infection control measure applied during the first 30 days is hand hygiene compliance (p = 21%). The impact of various infection control strategies implemented since day 30 on CPKP colonization prevalence was simulated (the mean of 1,000 simulations is shown). The evaluated scenarios include: 1. adopt no additional infection control measures (hand hygiene compliance p = 21%), 2. increase p to 60%, 3. increase p to 80%, 4. increase p to 60% and reduce colonization prevalence on admission of CPKP by 60% (through active surveillance and subsequent isolation or strict contact precautions for positive patients), 5. increase p to 60% and reduce colonization prevalence on admission of CPKP by 90%, 6. increase p to 80% and reduce colonization prevalence on admission of CPKP by 90%. Dashed lines (- - -) correspond to the above scenarios with the addition of 50% reduction in the duration of antibiotic usage during patients' stay in the unit (assuming a relative risk associated with antibiotic use equal to 3).