Granger (causal) analyses of relative T_IS and contact during cold challenge.

The results of Granger analyses on relative T_IS (T_IS^rel) and contact with males and females. Asterisks indicate significant Granger causality, evaluated at α = .05/6 = .0083. Non-significant results (p<.05) are also shown to depict trends in the data. Arrows indicate that a change in one variable at time t_n predicts a change in another variable at t_n+lag. For example, in all but the Female Lag 0 models, T_IS^rel is a stronger predictor of contacts with females than the reverse. Arrows in both directions indicate a feedback relationship between the two variables [65]; for example, our results indicate negative feedback between female T_IS^rel and female contacts with males and positive feedback between the male T_IS^rel and male contacts with females. The coloration of arrows indicates significant lagged Pearson product moment correlations between the two variables (p<.001), with positive and negative correlations indicated by green and red, respectively. Tests between T_IS^rel and total contacts were run, but are not shown given that none were statistically significant. Models for Lag 3 were constructed but are not shown. For females, the model was null (no significant Granger causality detected), whereas for males the only significant effect was that male T_IS^rel Granger caused male contacts with males (F = 4.94, p<.003).