Figure_2.tif (1.96 MB)

Dynamics of uncontrolled epidemics and the 2005 Marburg hemorrhagic fever epidemic in Angola.

Download (0 kB)
figure
posted on 19.02.2013 by Marco Ajelli, Stefano Merler

A Predicted probability distribution of the final number of cases (blue) and deaths (red) as percentage of the population in uncontrolled epidemics. In 45.1% of model simulations both final number of cases and deaths are less than 0.1% of the population. B Daily incidence of new cases (blue line and dashed area represent mean and 95% CI respectively) and deaths (red line and dashed area represent mean and 95% CI respectively) of simulated uncontrolled epidemics, initialized with one infected individual at time 0 in a population of 100,000 individuals. C Cumulative number of Marburg hemorrhagic fever cases as reported in the 2005 epidemic in Angola [15] (black dots) and as resulting from model simulations (blue line, blue shaded area and blue dashed area represents average, 50%CI and 95%CI respectively). Model simulations assume that isolation of cases starts when 120 deaths are observed, daily isolation probability is set to 30%, first isolation day is set to 2 days and the size of the population is 500,000 individuals [20]. Results reported in this figure are based on 10,000 model realizations.

History

Licence

Exports

Logo branding

Licence

Exports