Dynamics of uncontrolled epidemics and the 2005 Marburg hemorrhagic fever epidemic in Angola.
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A Predicted probability distribution of the final number of cases (blue) and deaths (red) as percentage of the population in uncontrolled epidemics. In 45.1% of model simulations both final number of cases and deaths are less than 0.1% of the population. B Daily incidence of new cases (blue line and dashed area represent mean and 95% CI respectively) and deaths (red line and dashed area represent mean and 95% CI respectively) of simulated uncontrolled epidemics, initialized with one infected individual at time 0 in a population of 100,000 individuals. C Cumulative number of Marburg hemorrhagic fever cases as reported in the 2005 epidemic in Angola  (black dots) and as resulting from model simulations (blue line, blue shaded area and blue dashed area represents average, 50%CI and 95%CI respectively). Model simulations assume that isolation of cases starts when 120 deaths are observed, daily isolation probability is set to 30%, first isolation day is set to 2 days and the size of the population is 500,000 individuals . Results reported in this figure are based on 10,000 model realizations.