Branching process of events underlying cross-sectionally recorded outcomes.

p is the probability of an RDT being positive; m is the probability of clinical malaria during any two week period, conditional on infection; n is the probability of non-malaria fever during any two week period; t is the probability of treatment with an antimalarial conditional on being both infected and febrile during the two-week period; and r is the probability that an untreated fever is reported.