Baseline progression risk for the model in the top part of Table 4, for a non-black participant in the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center liver studies cohort .
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(A) Risk of progression at a time step of 1.5 years given no progression at earlier time steps (hazard of progression). All transitions have decreasing hazard, reflecting the odds ratios <1 in Table 4 for years in stage. For the transition from stage 2 to 3, the estimated hazard of progression is 0.55 for the first step and 0 at all later times; this is not shown to avoid compression of the vertical scale for the other transitions. (b) Cumulative risk of progression. The cumulative risk in the first time step is equal to the hazard; at later time steps, it is equal to the previous cumulative risk plus the current hazard times (1 – previous cumulative risk). The cumulative risk therefore increases by less than the current hazard when the previous cumulative risk is already substantial.