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The effect of geometry and level of infectiousness on Experiment 2: The different curves correspond to different CTA uptake-rates (p%), all in the random-uptake scenario in a 500,000-node GIRG with many super-spreaders (τ = 2.3).

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posted on 19.05.2021, 17:37 by Leslie Ann Goldberg, Joost Jorritsma, Júlia Komjáthy, John Lapinskas

The four columns represent different scenarios—the first column has β = 0.2 (a high infection rate, perhaps caused by less social distancing) and α = 1.3. The second column also has β = 0.2, but with a higher α, implying fewer (but not significantly fewer) long-range edges. Observe that the effect of increasing α is not very significant, corresponding to the explanation in Section 1.4.4. The final two columns represent scenarios with a lower underlying infection rate (β = 0.05), with varying levels of geometry. The three rows correspond to the three KPIs. The x-axis shows the quarantine strictness q varying from 0 to 1 at step size 0.05. Simulations are done for the 21 values of q corresponding to these steps. There is an additional simulation point at 0.02 (in order to avoid division by 0 in the computation for HMax and still have a point close to 0). For each parameter value, the plotted result is the median over 5 runs. The shaded region around the plot covers the results of all 5 simulations. The epidemic is started by infecting 100 individuals, chosen uniformly at random. Simulation is halted when there are no more exposed or infected vertices.

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