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Schematic of the epidemiological model.

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posted on 03.12.2020, 19:02 authored by Sean C. Anderson, Andrew M. Edwards, Madi Yerlanov, Nicola Mulberry, Jessica E. Stockdale, Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Rebeca C. Falcao, Michael C. Otterstatter, Michael A. Irvine, Naveed Z. Janjua, Daniel Coombs, Caroline Colijn

Compartments are: susceptible to the virus (S); exposed (E1); exposed, pre-symptomatic, and infectious (E2); symptomatic and infectious (I); quarantined (Q); and recovered or deceased (R). Recovered individuals are assumed to be immune. The model includes analogous variables for individuals practising physical distancing: Sd, E1d, E2d, Id, Qd, and Rd. Solid arrows represent flow of individuals between compartments at rates indicated by the mathematical terms (see Supplement for full definitions). Dashed lines show which compartments contribute to new infections. An individual in some compartment X can begin distancing and move to the corresponding compartment Xd at rate ud. The reverse transition occurs at rate ur. The model quickly settles on a fraction e = ud/(ud + ur) participating in distancing, and dynamics depend on this fraction, rather than on the rates ud and ur.