Results of the statistical model regarding the pre-intervention period (July 2012-June 2015).

(a) Time trend over the months with y-axis displaying the geometric mean ratio (GMR) and x-axis the date (year and month). Time trends were modelled using natural regression splines. The GMR compares the geometric mean (GM) of topical AMU in each month to the average GM across the three-year period (GMR = 1 on January 2014 by definition). The grey lines depict the clinic-specific estimates, whereas the red line depicts the mean of the random effects distribution. Time trend is displayed for total topical AMU. (b) Seasonal pattern of total topical AMU. In the y-axis the GMR is displayed and on the x-axis the months. The seasonal effect was modelled using harmonic functions. The GMR compares the GM of topical AMU in each month to the average GM across the year (GMR = 1 on the month of May by definition). The grey lines depict the clinic-specific estimates, whereas the red line depicts the mean of the random effects distribution.