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Probabilities assuming a uniform attack rate.

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posted on 2021-02-17, 18:44 authored by Beatriz Seoane

A We use the measurements of the number of infections in Spain to estimate the UIFR using Eq (3) in both regions. We fix the constant in S2 Table using the estimation of the UIFR in Spain for the age group 50-59 to infer the values of the country average UIFR (from the collapse of Fig 3B). We show this first estimation in red, and in green, we show the UIFR after correcting the under-counting of deaths over 70 years old. We compare these results with the estimation by Verity et al. [25] and the CFR (i.e. the probability of dying for confirmed COVID-19 cases, not the IFR) by age in South Korea. In B, we use the IFR estimations from A̠ and Table 1, to predict the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the population of Geneva, Switzerland, from the official distribution of deaths per age of a total of 277 deceases. The predicted fraction of infections is given in dots (in green, if we used the bare estimation of Eq (9), in violet, if we include the corrections linked to under-counting). In horizontal lines (and the 95% of confidence interval in gray shadow), we show the actual values measured from the antibody survey of Ref. [47] in patients of different age-groups.

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