Predicted values from hierarchical models analyzing the effect of microclimate on ACI.

Four microclimate variables were included in the models. Surface temperature change denotes the positive temperature change 30 min prior to the ACI measurement. For each variable, predictions are shown for a scenario at a low level (mean–1SD) and at a high level (mean + 1SD). For surface temperature change, the low-level scenario was set to 0 degrees temperature change to keep scenarios realistic. For soil moisture, a quadratic term was included in the model to account for a potential non-linear effect. Points show the highest maximum a posteriori estimates, and error bars show the 95% highest density intervals. Lines in black show the global mean, with its 95% highest density interval.