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Output of the MCMC algorithm for the exponential kernel model.

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posted on 2018-10-08, 17:28 authored by Lloyd A. C. Chapman, Chris P. Jewell, Simon E. F. Spencer, Lorenzo Pellis, Samik Datta, Rajib Chowdhury, Caryn Bern, Graham F. Medley, T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

Top: Log-likelihood trace plot. 2nd-4th row: Posterior distributions for the spatial transmission rate constant β (mnth−1), risk decay distance α (m), background transmission rate ϵ (mnth−1), and incubation period distribution parameter p, with prior distributions (green lines), posterior modes (magenta lines) and 95% highest posterior density intervals (red lines). Bottom: Number of active VL cases over time in 100 iterations of the MCMC algorithm (red lines), with imputed missing onset and recovery times, and number of active cases excluding individuals with missing onset and/or recovery times (black dashed line).

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