Modelled curves of daily outbreak probabilities of COVID-19 in the nursing homes of each Département (solid line) and daily hospitalization probabilities in each Département population (dotted line) according to the time elapsed since March 1, 2020, France.

The curves are ranked in an increasing order of height of the peaks of outbreak probabilities in nursing homes. The left-hand y-axis corresponds to the daily probability of outbreak. The right-hand y-axis corresponds to the daily hospitalization probability per 100,000 inhabitants.