Malaria prevalence five years after MDA (box plots summarize 100 simulations each) with baseline PfPR_2-10 = 1% and importation of 580Y alleles set at 0.1 cases/day.

The numbers printed below each plot indicate the number of simulations that reached fewer than 100 malaria cases present in the population (i.e. almost all are imports), which is a proxy for the number of simulations that achieved elimination. Numbers of rounds of MDA are shown by different colors, and four levels of improved treatment access are considered on the x-axis (65% coverage post-MDA to 80% coverage post-MDA). Improved treatment coverage post-MDA increases the chances of local elimination.