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Large benefits to youth-focused HIV treatment-as-prevention efforts in generalized heterosexual populations: An agent-based simulation model - Fig 3

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posted on 17.12.2019, 18:33 by John E. Mittler, James T. Murphy, Sarah E. Stansfield, Kathryn Peebles, Geoffrey S. Gottlieb, Neil F. Abernethy, Molly C. Reid, Steven M. Goodreau, Joshua T. Herbeck

Effect of targeting strategy and the TasP target (Starg) on: (a) incidence 20–25 years after the TasP campaign, (b) AIDS deaths between years 0 and 25, (c) person-years of therapy (included to demonstrate that the age-based strategies did not inadvertently result in more people being treated), and (d) the percentage of HIV+ people initiating treatment at the start of the TasP campaign who were not a member of a target group. For random (untargeted) TasP, the values in panel d will always be 100% (data omitted from graph). The apparent decline in panel d between 90% and 100%, a decline not seen in other experiments, reflects statistical noise accentuated by the fact that only 95% of the population is linkable in this simulation (i.e., Starg = 100% translating to 95% suppression). Each point is the mean of 16 replicates. Bars give standard deviations (SDs). For normally distributed data, 95% confidence intervals would be ~55% the width [since t0.025,15 *SD/sqrt(15) = ~0.55*SD]. For this simulation, we set the initial population size to 10,000. In this and subsequent figures we assumed sudden pre-TasP rollouts so that the TasP campaign will roughly double the number of virally suppressed people.

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