Large benefits to youth-focused HIV treatment-as-prevention efforts in generalized heterosexual populations: An agent-based simulation model - Fig 3
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Effect of targeting strategy and the TasP target (Starg) on: (a) incidence 20–25 years after the TasP campaign, (b) AIDS deaths between years 0 and 25, (c) person-years of therapy (included to demonstrate that the age-based strategies did not inadvertently result in more people being treated), and (d) the percentage of HIV+ people initiating treatment at the start of the TasP campaign who were not a member of a target group. For random (untargeted) TasP, the values in panel d will always be 100% (data omitted from graph). The apparent decline in panel d between 90% and 100%, a decline not seen in other experiments, reflects statistical noise accentuated by the fact that only 95% of the population is linkable in this simulation (i.e., Starg = 100% translating to 95% suppression). Each point is the mean of 16 replicates. Bars give standard deviations (SDs). For normally distributed data, 95% confidence intervals would be ~55% the width [since t0.025,15 *SD/sqrt(15) = ~0.55*SD]. For this simulation, we set the initial population size to 10,000. In this and subsequent figures we assumed sudden pre-TasP rollouts so that the TasP campaign will roughly double the number of virally suppressed people.