Dynamics pre and post social distancing intervention in well-mixed populations.
A) Model of COVID-19 clinical progression and transmission. The model is described in the text and detailed in the Methods. Social distancing interventions (red X) reduce the rate of transmission and the generation of new infections. B-E) Simulated time course of the population level prevalence of each clinical stage of infection under different intervention efficacies. The intervention was implemented on day 40. Solid line is mean and shaded areas are 5th and 95th percentile. Black dotted line shows the time the intervention began. F) Time to peak of different infection stages, measured as days post-intervention. The first three quantities are peak prevalence levels (I1, I2, I3), while the latter two are peak daily incidence values. We assume that cases are diagnosed only at the time of hospitalization. Daily incidence values were first smoothed using moving averages over a 7 day window centered on the date of interest. Bars represent 5th and 95th percentile.
