Distribution of observed and predicted spending.
The distribution of observed cost was cut off at $100,000, omitting about 2% of beneficiaries. There are no beneficiaries with a predicted spending above $80,500 in any of the models. Here, N = 6,200 and weighted N = 36,824,486. The regression and propensity score methods are based on calibrated claims. The claims approach is based on actual claims except for about 5% of beneficiaries with dollar amounts in the personal summary file(s), no claims for these beneficiaries. For these beneficiaries, we used the imputed claims from the NHANES and assigned dollars to calibrated medical conditions on that basis.