Comparison of observed and predicted counts of each serotype within each study of S. pneumoniae invasiveness in children.

The points show the observed value on the horizontal axis, and the median predicted value on the vertical axis. The error bars show the 95% credibility intervals. The points and bars are coloured by the study to which they correspond; note that England and Wales is abbreviated to “E&W” (S1 Table). The red dashed line shows the line of identity, corresponding to a perfect match between prediction and observation. The left column shows the correspondence for carriage data (values of c_i,j), and the right column shows the correspondence for disease isolates (values of d_i,j). Each row corresponds to a different model: (A) null Poisson model; (B) null negative binomial model; (C) type-specific Poisson model; (D) type-specific negative binomial model; (E) study-adjusted Poisson model; (F) study-adjusted negative binomial model; (G) study-adjusted type-specific Poisson model; (H) study-adjusted type-specific negative binomial model.