Comparison between the estimates of effective reproduction numbers by the true and inferred records of symptom onsets.

The solid blue curves and cyan areas respectively denote the average values and 95% confidence intervals obtained by 10000 independent runs according to the inferred data. The red circles represent the results obtained by the true records. The gray shadows emphasize the situations where the epidemic is under control (R_t < 1). The six plots are results for Sichuan, Guangdong, Anhui, Henan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang.