Classification of observations 251 to 275 by 39 logistic regression models.

Epi, observation was an epidemic; Nonepi, observation was a non-epidemic. There is a separate panel for each observation. The data points in each panel represent the epidemic classifications by each of the logistic regression models, based on dichotomizing the predicted probability (from cross validation) of an epidemic. For each model the cut-point for classification was that for which the Youden Index was maximal. Correct, observation was correctly classified by the model; FP, observation’s classification was a false positive; FN, observation’s classification was a false negative. Cultivar resistance classes to Fusarium head blight were VS, very susceptible; S, susceptible; MS, moderately susceptible; MR, moderately resistant. The observations are the same arbitrary sample as in S2 Fig to show the diversity of results.

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