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COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planner

posted on 2020-03-11, 01:01 authored by Joshua WeitzJoshua Weitz
Charts that provide estimates of the probability (i.e., the 'risk') that one or more individuals who are COVID-19 positive are at an event of size n (x-axis). The y-axis makes different assumptions about the number of circulating cases in the USA (I). The main chart uses lines of constant 'risk', i.e., 1%, 2%, 10%, 50% and 90% for combinations of n and I. Two scenarios are then considered (I=2,000 and I=20,000) such that the risk for events of different sizes n can be read off the corresponding horizontal lines.

Key note: the chart assumes homogeneous incidence. In reality, risk is heterogeneous, though significant uncertainty exists on local prevalence of COVID-19 as of 3/10/2020.

Joshua S. Weitz,,