resilience_relatedness_tr.csv
This study utilizes multiple datasets spanning the period 2008–2022 to analyze regional economic resilience at the NUTS-3 level in Turkey, focusing on the effects of related and unrelated variety. Data sources include the Statistical Yearbooks of the Social Security Institution (SSI) and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT).
Employment data were sourced from the SSI and include information on insured employees under 4-a, classified according to the NACE Rev. 2 sectoral classification. Employees within the scope of 4-a primarily represent private-sector workers, as public sector employees with job guarantees are excluded from this category. This distinction is critical because public sector employees are largely insulated from economic shocks, whereas private-sector employment more accurately reflects the labor market's vulnerability and response to shocks. This data allows us to calculate employment-based resilience metrics, following the methodology of Martin et al. (2016). However, recognizing the significant informal employment problem in Turkey, as highlighted by Eraydın (2016), GDP data were also incorporated as a complementary measure of economic resilience. GDP data at the provincial level, also classified by NACE Rev. 2, were obtained from TURKSTAT and used alongside employment data to provide a comprehensive picture of regional resilience. In addition to GDP and employment data, provincial export data were utilized to calculate related and unrelated variety at the provincial level in Turkey. These data, categorized under the SITC Rev. 3 classification, were sourced from TURKSTAT.
To ensure the robustness of the analysis and to isolate the effects of related and unrelated variety, several control variables were incorporated into the study. These include the proportion of employees without social security (SocS), exports to the European Union (ExEU), and a dummy variable (CrossB) that accounts for development differences between the eastern and western regions of Turkey.
The proportion of employees without social security (SocS) serves as a proxy for the prevalence of informal employment, a defining feature of the Turkish labor market. Informality can amplify economic vulnerabilities due to limited access to social protection mechanisms and the lower productivity of informal firms. However, it may also provide flexibility and act as a buffer during downturns by creating employment opportunities when the formal sector contracts. Exports to the EU (ExEU), Turkey’s largest trading partner, were included due to their significant role in the country’s economic performance. The EU’s relatively stable demand contribute to economic resilience by providing predictable export revenues. However, Turkey’s dependence on the EU also creates vulnerabilities, particularly during periods of economic instability. Finally, a dummy variable (CrossB) was created to reflect the development differences between the east and west of Turkey, which manifest themselves in various economic and social dimensions. This variable specifically identifies the 13 provinces in the east and southeast of Turkey covered by cross-border trade with neighboring countries, assigning a value of 1 to these provinces and 0 to the remaining 68 provinces. Cross-border trade in these 13 provinces serves as an additional opportunity for these provinces to increase their export volumes, thereby contributing to improved well-being and income levels in these regions. When calculating related and unrelated variety based on export data, this differentiation is particularly relevant for understanding regional variations in economic structure and resilience. To further explore these dynamics, the model also includes interaction terms between this dummy variable (CrossB) and the related and unrelated variety indices.
