5 files

Welfare Changes from Agricultural Yield Shocks for 1-3 Degrees of Global Warming (AgMIP, Preferred Ensemble)

posted on 2017-09-18, 21:36 authored by Frances MooreFrances Moore, Uris Baldos, Thomas Hertel, Delavane Diaz
Shape file with 140 GTAP regions giving welfare changes for 1-3 degrees of warming. Three values are given for each level of warming - the central estimate (50th percentile) and the upper (97.5th percentile) and lower (2.5th percentile) bounds of the 95% confidence interval. The column "VOM" gives the total value of the shocked sectors for that region, used to normalize the welfare changes to give % change, as reported in Moore et al (in press).

Welfare changes are equivalent variation and are based on yield shocks derived from averaging AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison results (Rosenzweig et al 2014). Data are available from the ISIMIP Fast Trak project page: and were analyzed according to methods reported in Moore et al (in press). The results here are for a preferred ensemble of crop models, excluding the ones that do not explicitly represent nitrogen stress.

Moore, F. C., Baldos, U., Hertel, T. W. & Diaz, D. New Science of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture Implies Higher Social Cost of Carbon. Nat. Commun.

Rosenzweig, C., Elliott, J., Deryng, D., Ruane, A. C., Müller, C., Arneth, A., Boote, K. J., Folberth, C., Glotter, M., Khabarov, N., Neumann, K., Piontek, F., Pugh, T. A. M., Schmid, E., Stehfest, E., Yang, H. & Jones, J. W. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 111, 3268–73 (2014).