The Potential Distribution Pattern and Ecological Suitability of <i>Anoplophora horsfieldi Hope </i>in China Based on MaxEnt Model Analysis
<p dir="ltr">The <i>Anoplophora horsfieldi Hope</i>, a pest belonging to the Cerambycidae family, is widely distributed across China and infests various living trees, posing a serious threat to the development of agricultural and forestry production as well as ecological security. This study, based on 155 geographic distribution coordinates of A. horsfieldi provided by the Global Biodiversity Information Network (GBIF, http://www.gbif.org), utilized the Jackknife method and Pearson correlation coefficient to screen key environmental factors influencing its distribution. The MaxEnt 3.4.4 ecological niche model and ArcGIS 10.8 geographic information system software were employed to predict the potential suitable distribution areas of this species for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100.The results indicate that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of A. horsfieldi include Mean Diurnal Range (bio2), Temperature Annual Range (bio7), Precipitation of Driest Quarter (bio17), and Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter (bio8). Under current climate conditions, the total area of potential suitable distribution for A. horsfieldi is approximately 5.9687 × 10⁴ km², primarily concentrated in Central, South, East, and Southwest China. For the three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5), the medium and low suitability areas for A. horsfieldi show relatively stable changes overall, but the expansion of high suitability areas exhibits significant fluctuations, particularly in regions such as Guangxi, Guangdong, Sichuan, and Taiwan in South, Southwest, and East China, where a clear increasing trend is observed. Model validation results show that the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is 0.966, indicating high accuracy of the simulation results.This study provides a scientific theoretical basis for forestry-related departments to control the spread of A.horsfieldi, while also laying a solid theoretical foundation and practical experience for future ecological protection and biosafety efforts.</p>
