simple patch model for posting2.xls (6.16 MB)
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Simple 2-Patch Vaccine Model

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posted on 07.04.2022, 16:47 authored by David FismanDavid Fisman, Ashleigh TuiteAshleigh Tuite

Impact of Population Mixing Between a Vaccinated Majority and Unvaccinated Minority on Disease Dynamics: Implications for SARS-CoV-2


Abstract

Background: The speed of vaccine development has been a singular achievement during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, anti-vaccination movements and disinformation efforts have resulted in suboptimal uptake of available vaccines. Vaccine opponents often frame their opposition in terms of the rights of the unvaccinated. Our objective was to explore the impact of mixing of vaccinated and unvaccinated populations on risk among vaccinated individuals.

Methods: We constructed a simple Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) compartmental model of a respiratory infectious disease with two connected sub-populations: vaccinated individuals and unvaccinated individuals (Figure 1). We modeled the non-random mixing of these two groups using a matrix approach with a mixing constant varied to simulate a spectrum of patterns ranging from random mixing to complete assortativity. We evaluated the dynamics of an epidemic within each subgroup, and in the population as a whole, and also evaluated the contact-frequency-adjusted contribution of unvaccinated individuals to risk among the vaccinated.

Results: As expected, the relative risk of infection was markedly higher among unvaccinated individuals than among vaccinated individuals. However, the contact-adjusted contribution of unvaccinated individuals to infection risk during the epidemic was disproportionate with unvaccinated individuals contributing to infection risk among the vaccinated at a rate up to 6.4 times higher than would have been expected based on contact numbers alone in the base case. As assortativity increased the final attack rate decreased among vaccinated individuals, but the contact-adjusted contribution to risk among vaccinated individuals derived from contact with unvaccinated individuals increased.

Interpretation: While risk associated with avoiding vaccination during a virulent pandemic accrues chiefly to the unvaccinated, the choices of these individuals are likely to impact the health and safety of vaccinated individuals in a manner disproportionate to the fraction of unvaccinated individuals in the population.

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