Land transfer parameters.

Land-use changes significantly influence carbon storage capacity by altering the structure, layout, and function of terrestrial ecosystems. Predicting the relationship between future land-use changes and carbon storage is essential for optimizing land-use patterns and making rational, ecology-based decisions. Using multi-period land-use data from Xinjiang, we analyzed the spatial pattern of carbon storage. Based on land-use change patterns in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020, we coupled the Markov-Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS)-Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to simulate and predict land-use spatial patterns in Xinjiang for 2035 under two scenarios: natural growth and ecological protection. Carbon storage and its spatiotemporal dynamic changes under these scenarios were evaluated, and the Geodetector was employed to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage from a statistical perspective, revealing the influence of various driving factors. The results showed that: (1) From 2000–2020, grassland and unused land were the primary land-use types in Xinjiang, accounting for over 28.85% and 60.17% of the total area, respectively. By 2035, cropland, forest, water, and construction land areas are expected to increase, while grassland and unused land areas are projected to decrease. Under the ecological protection scenario, cropland, forest land, and grassland—major main contributors to carbon storage—will be effectively conserved to some extent. (2) From 2000 to 2020, Xinjiang’s carbon storage capacity exhibited an overall increasing trend, with a cumulative increase of 137.515×10⁵ t and a growth rate of 1.58%. However, this capacity is projected to decline by 2035, with an estimated reduction of 168.344×10⁵ t compared to that in 2020. Ecological protection is anticipated to mitigate this decline, increasing carbon storage by 13.227×10⁵ t relative to the natural growth scenario. (3) Geodetector analysis indicated that land-use types had the greatest carbon storage explanatory power for carbon storage (q = 0.80), followed by soil types (q = 0.41), net primary productivity (q = 0.32), and geomorphology (q = 0.22). This highlights land-use types as the most critical environmental factor determining the spatial pattern of carbon storage. These findings provide scientific insights and recommendations for the sustainable development management and the enhancement of carbon storage functions.