Data_MaizeLimitMovement

Climate warming drives northward movements of crop planting limits, especially for maize in Northeast China. Earlier studies more focused on dynamics of the potential northern limit of maize (PNLine), yet knowledge on how climate warming driven movements of the actual northern limit of maize (ANLine) and its corresponding impact on regional agriculture are limited. To bridge the gap, this study firstly developed a method to detect the ANLine by using satellite-derived crop data and kernel density estimation. Spatio-temporal relationships between PNLine and ANLine were further investigated based on the fishnet method. To assess the driving factors behind the expansion of maize acreage, an empirical analysis was conducted in the maize-soybean key competitive region (KCR). Based on the fixed effects estimation, we finally calculated the climate-warming driven maize acreage expansion over the past two decades and projected its changes for the next decade. Results showed that from 2000 to 2020, the PNLine and ANLine moved northwards by an average of 101.67 and 75.4 km. The two lines showed a strong correlation (r = 0.78, p < 0.05). The increasing accumulated temperature was the key driver behind these movements. A 10 ℃·d increase in AAT10 is associated with a 2.74% increase in maize acreage in the KCR. From 2000 to 2020, ~ 43.5% (2.49×104 km²) of the maize acreage expansion could be attributable to climate warming. By 2030, climate warming is projected to expand the maize acreage by 2.07×104 and 2.72×104 km² under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. It means that to offset maize acreage expansion led by climate warming in Northeast China, more strategies would be needed to narrow the profit gap between maize and soybean. These findings could provide valuable references for regional crop planting structure adjustments and agricultural sustainability under climate change.