Tracing the threads of chance: Historical insights for teaching probability

<p dir="ltr">Whakapapa, foundational background, is a key concept vital to Māori. Understanding aspects of the history of probability sits well with acknowledging the whakapapa of probability theory. The curriculum emphasises that our current mathematics and statistics understandings come from innovations, developments, and knowledge from many cultures over much time (Ministry of Education, 2024, 2025). This emphasis is portrayed in the grounding whakataukī of the mathematics and statistics curriculum: “Ānō me he whare pūngāwerewere - Behold, it is like the web of a spider.” and in the curriculum purpose statement. Despite both emphases on acknowledgement of the historical developmental nature of the curriculum and the contributions to current understanding of people from many cultures over time, the curriculum’s specific guidance on what to teach and how to do so does not mention historical aspects of the field of probability. The absence of specific links to the history of probability understanding and tools has the potential to limit the emphasis educators give to this focus. We hope that this wāhanga provides inspiration for educators to teach the curriculum in ways that enable learners to understand how, when, and why the ideas they are using were developed and see glimpses of the intrigue and creativity these key people engaged in. </p>