Ethanol consumption, incentive costs, and cost effectiveness with three incremental gasoline costs.

The figure shows model results for all years under different policy and incremental gasoline cost conditions. The left-hand column shows results under Higher Market and Infrastructure Incentive conditions, while the right-hand column shows results under Lower Market and Infrastructure Incentive conditions. Three levels of incremental gasoline costs are represented with three different sizes of marks. The cumulative net subsidy color scale shows government payments or revenues generated, assuming that incremental gasoline costs are revenue in the form of gasoline taxes. The top row shows ethanol consumption over time; the middle row shows cumulative subsidy (with incremental gasoline costs treated as a subsidy and added to other costs, rather than being subtracted as they were for the cumulative net subsidy scale); the bottom row shows a metric of effectiveness of investment in annual production capacity–Capacity Expansion Cost Effectiveness.