Effect of Time Delay until Intervention on Outbreak Size

Effect of time delay until intervention on outbreak size is contrasted for outbreaks with R₀ = 2 (solid lines) and R₀ ≈ 1.1 (dashed lines).

(A) Average outbreak size (y-axis) increases with the number of days until intervention (x-axis).

(B) CV in outbreak size (y-axis) increases with the number of days until intervention (x-axis).

(C) CV in outbreak size (y-axis) increases at a declining rate (i.e., levels off) as the average outbreak size increases (x-axis). Note that the CV in final outbreak size increases faster in the outbreak with lower R₀.