File(s) stored somewhere else
Please note: Linked content is NOT stored on Carnegie Mellon University and we can't guarantee its availability, quality, security or accept any liability.
Using Models that Incorporate Uncertainty
journal contribution
posted on 2002-01-01, 00:00 authored by Jonathan P. CaulkinsWhat does a practicing policy analyst need to know about using models that incorporate uncertainty? One could write volumes focusing only on models that produce specific numeric forecasts (as opposed to conceptual models that address uncertainty qualitatively). But in the 21st century sound bites are more useful. In short: The world is uncertain; but sampling variability isn’t the driver; and so there is no excuse not to simulate. The real challenge, though, is to communicate effectively about models that incorporate uncertainty.