The effects of improved efficacy associated with treating late-stage disease and the effects of over-diagnosis for the years 1982–2013.

(a) Average mortality reductions per year per 100,000 persons as a function of q for all p where D(0) = 0.01 and (b) D(0) = 0.05. Note the robustness of results with respect to both p and D(t) (all five plots for different values of p are closely superimposed). (c) Excess diagnoses per 100,000 persons as a function of maximal over-diagnosis proportion for all p where D(0) = 0.01 and (d) D(0) = 0.05.