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Regional Shelter Analysis Methodology
preprint
posted on 2019-10-15, 23:53 authored by Michael DillonMichael Dillon, Dennison Deborah, Jave O Kane, Walker Hoyt, Miller PaulThe fallout from a nuclear explosion has the potential to injure or kill
100,000 or more people through exposure to external gamma (fallout)
radiation. Existing buildings can reduce radiation exposure by placing
material between fallout particles and exposed people.
Lawrence
Livermore National Laboratory was tasked with developing an
operationally feasible methodology that could improve fallout casualty
estimates. The methodology, called a Regional Shelter Analysis, combines
the fallout protection that existing buildings provide civilian
populations with the distribution of people in various locations. The
Regional Shelter Analysis method allows the consideration of (a)
multiple building types and locations within buildings, (b) country
specific estimates, (c) population posture (e.g., unwarned vs. minimally
warned), and (d) the time of day (e.g., night vs. day). The protection
estimates can be combined with fallout predictions (or measurements) to
(a) provide a more accurate assessment of exposure and injury and (b)
evaluate the effectiveness of various casualty mitigation strategies.
This report describes the Regional Shelter Analysis methodology,
highlights key operational aspects (including demonstrating that the
methodology is compatible with current tools), illustrates how to
implement the methodology, and provides suggestions for future work.