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Regional Air Quality Management Aspects of Climate Change: Impact of Climate Mitigation Options on Regional Air Emissions
journal contribution
posted on 2015-04-21, 00:00 authored by Jason Rudokas, Paul J. Miller, Marcus
A. Trail, Armistead G. RussellWe
investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios
on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide
(SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated
with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial,
residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation).
We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation
energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to
2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low
carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the
lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing
rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes
occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon
tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector
NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments
in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation
of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated
with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions
in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.
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Keywords
power plant NOX controlscoal power plant retirementsproject emissions changesEPAbiomass fuel choice scenarioscarbon tax scenario projectscarbon taxclimate mitigation scenariospower plants subjectClimate Mitigation OptionsMARKet Allocation energy system modelCOU.SRegional Air EmissionsWe2050 reference caseelectricity sector NOX increases2050 time frameRegional Air Quality Management Aspectsclimate mitigation measures
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