Probability of elimination in relation to the average post-MDA mf prevalence or Ov16 antibody prevalence, by pre-control CMFL and age group tested for Ov16.
The mf prevalence was assessed in the population aged 5 years and above and Ov16 antibody prevalence in children aged 0–9 (hypothesis 2), one year after 1, 2, 3, … 25 treatment rounds with a treatment coverage of 70%. The probability of elimination was assessed after each duration, assuming that treatment would be discontinued thereafter. The separate lines connect outcomes on different treatment durations for a given transmission setting. The Ov16 antibody prevalence was estimated assuming that the Ov16 antibody test has a sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 99%. Note that the horizontal axis is ordered from highest to lowest.