pntd.0005314.g006.tif (1.04 MB)
Probability of elimination in relation to the average post-MDA mf prevalence or Ov16 antibody prevalence, by pre-control CMFL and age group tested for Ov16.
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posted on 2017-01-23, 17:30 authored by Yvonne L. Lont, Luc E. Coffeng, Sake J. de Vlas, Allison Golden, Tala de los Santos, Gonzalo J. Domingo, Wilma A. StolkThe mf prevalence was assessed in the population aged 5 years and above and Ov16 antibody prevalence in children aged 0–9 (hypothesis 2), one year after 1, 2, 3, … 25 treatment rounds with a treatment coverage of 70%. The probability of elimination was assessed after each duration, assuming that treatment would be discontinued thereafter. The separate lines connect outcomes on different treatment durations for a given transmission setting. The Ov16 antibody prevalence was estimated assuming that the Ov16 antibody test has a sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 99%. Note that the horizontal axis is ordered from highest to lowest.
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Ov 16 antibody prevalenceONCHOSIM modelimmunodiagnostic testOv 16 antibody serostatus5 yearsmicrofiladermia prevalenceOv 16 antibody responses1 yearmass treatmentpost-MDA Ov 16 antibody prevalenceivermectin mass drug administrationseroconversion ratemodel-predicted probabilityIgG 4 antibodiesseroprevalence datatransmission settingsbaseline endemicity levelsOnchocerciasis Elimination Programmes Background Onchocerciasistest characteristicsConclusions Better understandingOnchocerca volvulusseroconversion ratesparasite acquisition ratemf productionmf prevalencetreatment coverage levelsPrincipal findings YearlyModelling Anti-Ov 16 IgG 4 Antibody Prevalence
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