APCOverDispersion2016nov.R (2.52 kB)
Over-Dispersed Age-Period-Cohort Models
Version 2 2018-06-28, 20:07
Version 1 2017-08-28, 20:22
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posted on 2018-06-28, 20:07 authored by Jonas Harnau, Bent NielsenWe consider inference and forecasting for aggregate data organized in a two-way table with age and cohort as indices, but without measures of exposure. This is modeled using a Poisson likelihood with an age-period-cohort structure for the mean while allowing for over-dispersion. We propose a repetitive structure that keeps the dimension of the table fixed while increasing the latent exposure. For this, we use a class of infinitely divisible distributions which include a variety of compound Poisson models and Poisson mixture models. This results in asymptotic F inference and t forecast distributions.
Funding
The first author was supported by the Economic and Social Research Council, grant number ES/J500112/1. Both authors were supported by the programme for Economic Modelling, Oxford and European Research Council, grant AdG 694262.
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