NHS England CV deaths versus Sweden CV deaths.pdf (74.34 kB)
NHS England compared with Sweden Covid19 epidemic
A plot comparing the NHS England and Swedish mortality data.
The data for both countries follow a Gompertz function type distribution that is classic for viral epidemics.
The upper plot, which is a plot of the gradient, or rate of change of the log of cumulative deaths plotted on a logarithmic scale should be linear for a Gompertz distribution. Both England and Sweden follow a Gompertz distribution. There is no exponential phase of growth.
Moreover the growth rate of cumulative number of deaths in both countries is decreasing by the same rate as evidenced by the same gradients of the data in the upper plot. This is despite the two countries having differing approaches to social distancing and different policies regarding closure of schools, shops, bars, restaurants etc.
