## Model fitting results under two scenarios: Scenario 1 (weak infectivity with <i>ψ</i> = 0.1) in panels (a,b) and scenario 2 (strong infectivity with <i>ψ</i> = 0.5) in panels (c,d).

2018-01-16T18:32:48Z (GMT) by
<p>Black line with circles denote reported cases (in (a), in the form of square-root) and reported deaths (in (b), in the form of square-root), and red line denotes model simulation median. Blue dashed line denotes the fitted basic reproduction number, , and the green dashed line shows the calculated host susceptible proportion, <i>S</i>(<i>t</i>) (or <i>S</i><sub><i>h</i></sub>(<i>t</i>)/<i>N</i><sub><i>h</i></sub> in the model <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006158#pntd.0006158.e018" target="_blank">Eq 1</a>). Shaded region represents 95% bound of 1,000 model simulations. Vertical dashed line indicates the start date of the vaccination campaign. Inset panel shows BIC as a function of the number of nodes (<i>n</i><sub><i>m</i></sub>). The lowest BIC is attained at <i>n</i><sub><i>m</i></sub> = 7 in both scenarios, which is used in the main panel. Parameter values are listed in <a href="http://www.plosntds.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pntd.0006158#pntd.0006158.t002" target="_blank">Table 2</a>.</p>