Model fitting results under two scenarios: Scenario 1 (weak infectivity with ψ = 0.1) in panels (a,b) and scenario 2 (strong infectivity with ψ = 0.5) in panels (c,d).

Black line with circles denote reported cases (in (a), in the form of square-root) and reported deaths (in (b), in the form of square-root), and red line denotes model simulation median. Blue dashed line denotes the fitted basic reproduction number, , and the green dashed line shows the calculated host susceptible proportion, S(t) (or S_h(t)/N_h in the model Eq 1). Shaded region represents 95% bound of 1,000 model simulations. Vertical dashed line indicates the start date of the vaccination campaign. Inset panel shows BIC as a function of the number of nodes (n_m). The lowest BIC is attained at n_m = 7 in both scenarios, which is used in the main panel. Parameter values are listed in Table 2.