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Luwel v Leeuwen NWB 2018 .pdf (2.56 MB)

Has the 2008 Global Financial Crisis a lasting impact on universities and public research institutes in the European Union?

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posted on 2018-12-04, 10:33 authored by Marc Luwel, Thed Van leeuwenThed Van leeuwen
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2018 marks the 10th anniversary of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The Eurozone was confronted with an asymmetric shock, affecting particularly the heavily indebted countries Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Our study focusses on the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on universities and public research institutes in the above-mentioned countries, the Nordic and Benelux countries, Italy, France and the UK.

Time series analysis methods are used to investigate the relationship:

a) between the GDP and the combined Higher Education Expenditures on R&D (HERD) and Government Expenditures on R&D (GOVERD), and

b) between the combined HERD and GOVERD and the number of Web of Science (WoS) publications, using a full and a fractional counting scheme.

At country level, the total number of WoS publications is used as a proxy for the research capacity of the publicly funded research performing institutes. The period is 1990-2017.

Using the Granger causality test no relationship is found between the evolution of GDP and the combined HERD and GOVERD.

Except for Denmark and the UK (both counting schemes) and Norway and Sweden (full counting scheme), a breakpoint is observed around 2011-2012 in the countries' total number of publications within the most recent years a stagnation or even a decrease. Although based on a limited number of data points, the Chow test shows that for most countries the slope of the regression line before and after the breakpoint differs significantly. This breakpoint cannot be explained by a significant change in the coverage of the WoS and could be a (delayed) effect of the reduction in public funding.

Work is in progress on the causality tests between funding and publication output.

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