ERA Model 2018 - personalised patient outcomes prediction after endovascular aneurysm repair of abdominal aortic aneurysms

The interactive Endovascular Aneurysm Repair Risk Assessment (ERA) Model, originally developed in 2008, is updated and improved. Vascular surgeons enter preoperative variables for a patient undergoing EndoVascular Aneurysm Repair (EVAR) and the ERA Model estimates that patient's individualised expected outcomes. The new model uses variables that are routinely collected preoperatively, and hence can be used to support surgeon-patient discussions prior to the operation. Patients can be fully informed of potential risks based on individualised assessments of likely outcomes following elective EVAR surgery.

Outcomes include: 1 and 3 year survival, 30 and 90 day mortality, Early and mid-term endoleaks, operative and complication likelihoods.

Pre-operative variables are fitness (fit or unfit), ASA, history of stroke-TIA, age, aneurysm angle, infrarenal neck length, white cell count, respiratory assessment, diabetes and use of statins.