Comparing FTTP and FTTN costs for NBN Australia

2016-05-31T07:09:51Z (GMT) by Richard Ferrers
These models (xls, Numbers for Mac OS X, csv) compare the Capital costs (CAPEX), Operating costs (OPEX) and revenue generated for a single household. The aim primarily is to compare the upfront and continuing costs and revenues of a household connected to FTTN (Fibre to the Node) and FTTP (Fibre to the Premises). Original analysis in OSX Numbers (one page), translated into XLS (multi-page), CSV (multi-file). <div><br></div><div>Variables include: </div><div>(1) CAPEX, (2) annual OPEX, (3) annual revenue, (4) Life of asset.</div><div>The model also compares FTTP not starting until (5) Year X, where X is supplied by the user. </div><div>The model also allows (in Numbers) to set yearly period of output e.g. annual, each decade, half-decade etc.</div><div><br></div><div>V2 Now updated with discounted cash flow and discounted GDP impact in DCF files. 08.01.16</div><div><br></div><div>V3 Now updated with GDP boost (externality 1%, 2% variable) in DCF_Externality files. 25.01.16.</div><div><br></div><div>V4 Now included graphical heat map showing assumptions favouring FTTN or FTTP. Blog post 6 describes further. Javascript, in html file added within.</div><div><br></div><div>V5 Updated model to include Delta FTTP/FTTN calc as used in Heatmap.</div><div><br></div><div>V6 Added heat map image, so shows up in preview.</div>V7 Add image of raw data; from Optus HFC Overbuild doc.<div>Original source (Delimiter): see link below.</div>V9 Add Numbers, Xls of FTTN replacement cost, discounted from Yr 10, 20, with various labour inflation rates (0,2,3,5%) [FTTNreplacecostwithFTTP]<div><br><div><br></div><div>The model calculates breakeven; based on CAPEX, OPEX and Revenue. The model calculates yearly Cash balance (net costs and revenues), profit (adding depreciation and subtracting CAPEX), and GDP impact i.e. Revenue, plus costs, plus profit/loss of NBN Operator.<br><div><br></div><div><div>Current issues with model:</div><div>- life span of FTTN (est = 10 years; FTTP set conservatively to 25 years)</div><div>- current Revenue and OPEX figures are assumed annual with no changes over time</div><div>- FTTN figures after ten years, especially for revenue are not likely to be stable</div><div>- customer satisfaction for FTTN likely to decline as relative speed compared to FTTP declines, not accounted for</div><div>- does not account for HFC</div></div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>Further description in blog post attached.</div></div><div>NBN is the National Broadband Network, a 2007 project to connect all Australians to faster broadband. The 2009 ALP Government proposed connecting 93% to FTTP, while the 2013 Liberal National Coalition proposed connecting 25% of household to FTTN, 25% to FTTP and 40% to HFC. Remainder is wireless and satellite like the ALP proposal. The NBN is expected to complete in 2020 under the Coalition and 2025 under ALP proposals.</div></div><div><br></div><div>Discussion published at: </div><ul><li>Ferrers, R. (2016). <a href="">The NBN Brownfields Debate: valuing FTTN and FTTP</a>. Journal of Telecommunications and Digital Economy, 4, 2, 31-65. (link below).</li></ul><div><br></div><div><br></div>