## COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planner

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posted on 11.03.2020 by Joshua Weitz#### figure

Figures are generally photos, graphs and static images that would be represented in traditional pdf publications.

Charts that provide estimates of the probability (i.e., the 'risk') that one or more individuals who are COVID-19 positive are at an event of size n (x-axis). The y-axis makes different assumptions about the number of circulating cases in the USA (I). The main chart uses lines of constant 'risk', i.e., 1%, 2%, 10%, 50% and 90% for combinations of n and I. Two scenarios are then considered (I=2,000 and I=20,000) such that the risk for events of different sizes n can be read off the corresponding horizontal lines.

Key note: the chart assumes homogeneous incidence. In reality, risk is heterogeneous, though significant uncertainty exists on local prevalence of COVID-19 as of 3/10/2020.

Joshua S. Weitz, jsweitz@gatech.edu, http://ecotheory.biology.gatech.edu