monash_6921.pdf (398.35 kB)
Business forecasting with exponential smoothing: computation of prediction intervals
journal contribution
posted on 2017-06-08, 03:28 authored by Snyder, Ralph D., Grose, SimoneThe problem considered in this paper is how to find reliable prediction intervals with simple exponential smoothing and trend corrected exponential smoothing. Methods for constructing prediction intervals based on linear approximation and bootstrapping are proposed. A Monte Carlo simulation study, in which the proposed methods are compared, indicates that the most reliable intervals can be obtained with a parametric form of the bootstrap method. An application of the method to predicting Malaysian GNP per capita is considered.
History
Year of first publication
1996Series
Department of Econometrics.Usage metrics
Categories
No categories selectedKeywords
Licence
Exports
RefWorks
BibTeX
Ref. manager
Endnote
DataCite
NLM
DC