A spectral study of business cycle fluctuations in the Australian economy, 1950-1974

Chapter One outlines the aims and scope of this thesis. This chapter also includes a discussion of the nature of economic fluctuations an of recent business cycle fluctuations in the Australian economy in particular. It concludes with a brief review of the methodology of the indicator approach to business cycle analysis and a review of studies of the Australian economy based on this approach. Chapter Two explains how spectral methods can be used to explore the timing relationships between economic indicators at business cycle frequencies and reviews current research on the spectral analysis of economic fluctuations. Chapter Three applies spectral methods to an analysis of business cycle fluctuations in the Australian economy, 1950-1974. In this chapter, the basic issues underlying the analysis are first reviewed - the selection of a suitable reference series, the methods used to adjust the data to remove trend and seasonal influences and the range of frequencies necessary to cover the post-war business cycle. The results of the cross-spectral analysis of selected economic series with the reference series, Unfilled Vacancies, are reported and a comparison is made with the results f other studies on the timing of business cycle fluctuations in Australia. Chapter Four provides concluding comments on the value of indicator analysis and of spectral techniques in the study of business cycle fluctuations. The appendix contains details of the data and the computer programs used.