A methodology for spatial fuzzy reliability analysis

Natural hazard risk assessment requires quantification of uncertainty that is spatially and temporally variable. Spatial variability of risk has been rarely considered in the past research. This paper presents a new methodology to capture the spatial uncertainty as well as the subjectivity associated with the natural hazard risk analysis. The fuzzy set theory has been integrated with the geographic information system (GIS) in the development of the methodology for spatial reliability analysis. Paper explores the spatial extension of three fuzzy reliability indices i.e. (1) combined reliability-vulnerability, (2) robustness, and (3) resiliency. Fuzzy risk and reliability are quantified within a GIS framework and maps showing spatial variability of three fuzzy indices are developed. The proposed methodology has been applied to flood hazard management. It has been found that the application of spatial fuzzy reliability analysis provides additional information to flood managers regarding the spatial variability of flood risk and aids in the development of a sustainable flood management options.