Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting Shenstone, Lydia Hyndman, Rob J. 10.4225/03/59378c034fa46 https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/journal_contribution/Stochastic_models_underlying_Croston_s_method_for_intermittent_demand_forecasting/5085139 Croston's method is a widely used to predict inventory demand when it is intermittent. However, it is an ad hoc method with no properly formulated underlying stochastic model. In this paper, we explore possible models underlying Croston's method and three related methods, and we show that any underlying model will be inconsistent with the properties of intermittent demand data. However, we find that the point forecasts and prediction intervals based on such underlying models may still be useful.. 2017-06-07 05:15:46 Forecasting 2003 monash:2328 Croston's method 1959.1/2328 Intermittent demand Exponential smoothing