Stochastic models underlying Croston's method for intermittent demand forecasting
Shenstone, Lydia
Hyndman, Rob J.
10.4225/03/59378c034fa46
https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/journal_contribution/Stochastic_models_underlying_Croston_s_method_for_intermittent_demand_forecasting/5085139
Croston's method is a widely used to predict inventory demand when it is intermittent. However, it is an ad hoc method with no properly formulated underlying stochastic model. In this paper, we explore possible models underlying Croston's method and three related methods, and we show that any underlying model will be inconsistent with the properties of intermittent demand data. However, we find that the point forecasts and prediction intervals based on such underlying models may still be useful..
2017-06-07 05:15:46
Forecasting
2003
monash:2328
Croston's method
1959.1/2328
Intermittent demand
Exponential smoothing