10.1021/acs.est.6b03731.s002
Shannon N. Koplitz
Shannon N.
Koplitz
Daniel J. Jacob
Daniel J.
Jacob
Melissa P. Sulprizio
Melissa P.
Sulprizio
Lauri Myllyvirta
Lauri
Myllyvirta
Colleen Reid
Colleen
Reid
Burden of Disease from Rising Coal-Fired Power Plant
Emissions in Southeast Asia
American Chemical Society
2017
coal emissions
Southeast Asia Southeast Asia
1 h ozone
transboundary pollution influence
PM
2.6 Tg
surface air pollution
Southeast Asia
Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions
GEOS-Chem chemical transport model show
2017-01-12 00:00:00
Dataset
https://acs.figshare.com/articles/dataset/Burden_of_Disease_from_Rising_Coal-Fired_Power_Plant_Emissions_in_Southeast_Asia/4540936
Southeast Asia has a very high population density and is on a fast
track to economic development, with most of the growth in electricity
demand currently projected to be met by coal. From a detailed analysis
of coal-fired power plants presently planned or under construction
in Southeast Asia, we project in a business-as-usual scenario that
emissions from coal in the region will triple to 2.6 Tg a<sup>–1</sup> SO<sub>2</sub> and 2.6 Tg a<sup>–1</sup> NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> by 2030, with the largest increases occurring in Indonesia
and Vietnam. Simulations with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model
show large resulting increases in surface air pollution, up to 11
μg m<sup>–3</sup> for annual mean fine particulate matter
(PM<sub>2.5</sub>) in northern Vietnam and up to 15 ppb for seasonal
maximum 1 h ozone in Indonesia. We estimate 19 880 (11 400–28 400)
excess deaths per year from Southeast Asian coal emissions at present,
increasing to 69 660 (40 080–126 710)
by 2030. 9000 of these excess deaths in 2030 are in China. As Chinese
emissions from coal decline in coming decades, transboundary pollution
influence from rising coal emissions in Southeast Asia may become
an increasing issue.