10.4225/03/57E0B945934F8 Okwuashi, Onuwa Onuwa Okwuashi Ikediashi, Dubem Isaac Dubem Isaac Ikediashi GIS-based simulation of land use change Monash University 2016 monash:120611 1959.1/923380 Geographic Information System GIS Linear regression Land use change Ordinary least squares Geographically weighted regression 2014 collection(s) Applied GIS Type journal article Economic Geography Geography Geospatial Information Systems 2016-09-20 04:21:22 Journal contribution https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/journal_contribution/GIS-based_simulation_of_land_use_change/3840543 <div>This paper describes an application of ArcGIS to simulate land use changes in Lagos, Nigeria, using both Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), over three epochs - 1963-1978, 1978-1984 and 1984-2000. Twelve salient, causal factors thought to be related to urban land use change in Lagos were used, such as distance to water, distance to residential structures, income potential and population potential. OLS was used to establish the regression coefficients, gauge the significance of each explanatory variable and estimate conformity with linear regression criteria. GWR was then used to simulate the urban form based on the results of the OLS model. For the three epochs the respective Kappa statistics for the simulated maps were 0.8858, 0.8366 and 0.8812, indicating an almost perfect agreement with the data of 1978, 1984 and 2000.</div>