10.6084/m9.figshare.3405679.v1
David Mcinerney
David
Mcinerney
Mark Thyer
Mark
Thyer
Dmitri Kavetski
Dmitri
Kavetski
George Kuzera
George
Kuzera
Practical guidance on representing uncertainty in hydrological predictions
The University of Adelaide
2016
uncertainty estimation
hydrological models
Hydrology
2016-05-27 02:14:57
Conference contribution
https://adelaide.figshare.com/articles/conference_contribution/Practical_guidance_on_representing_uncertainty_in_hydrological_predictions/3405679
<p>Understanding the uncertainty in
hydrological model predictions is critically important for risk assessment and
managing water resources. The appropriate statistical representation of
residual errors (i.e. differences between simulated and observed flows) is
essential for accurate and reliable probabilistic predictions of streamflow. Residual
errors of hydrological predictions are often (i) heteroscedastic, with
magnitude of error increasing with magnitude of runoff, and (ii) persistent,
with errors exhibiting temporal autocorrelation. In this talk we will
illustrate why heteroscedasticity and persistence are important, and how
different representations of these characteristics can influence predictive
performance. Importantly, for
hydrological practitioners, our findings will provide practical guidance on the
selection of approaches for modelling heteroscedasticity and persistence. This will
enhance their ability to provide hydrological probabilistic predictions with
the best reliability and precision for different catchment types. </p>