10.1021/es061359b.s001
Olli Malve
Olli
Malve
Song S. Qian
Song S.
Qian
Estimating Nutrients and Chlorophyll
<i>a</i> Relationships in Finnish Lakes
American Chemical Society
2006
chlorophyll
lake manager
lake model
Finnish Lake monitoring network
management actions
TP
TN
phosphorus concentration combinations
European Water Framework Directive
Finnish Government
confidence level
Finnish LakesWe model
lake type model
2006-12-15 00:00:00
Journal contribution
https://acs.figshare.com/articles/journal_contribution/Estimating_Nutrients_and_Chlorophyll_i_a_i_Relationships_in_Finnish_Lakes/3041305
We model the response of chlorophyll <i>a</i>a surrogate for
the phytoplankton community volumeto variations in
lake total phosphorus (TP) and total nitrogen (TN)
concentrations. The model is fitted to a large cross-sectional data set from the Finnish Lake monitoring network.
The objective is to support the Finnish Government in
identifying management actions to achieve compliance of
the chlorophyll <i>a</i> concentration standard with a given
confidence level and to provide tools for the estimation of
critical (target) loads for nutrients in monitored lakes.
We develop a Bayesian hierarchical linear model which
combines advantages of both the currently preferred non-hierarchical lake-type-specific linear model and lake-specific linear model fitted separately using data from a
single lake. The hierarchical model is less biased at lake-level compared to the lake type model. In contrast to
the lake model, it predicts the lake specific chlorophyll <i>a</i>
response to nutrients outside the lake specific observational
range. The hierarchical model is used to calculate
probabilities of chlorophyll <i>a</i> concentration exceeding the
standard under different nitrogen and phosphorus
concentration combinations. These probabilities can be
used to estimate acceptable nitrogen−phosphorus
concentration combinations by a lake manager. We discuss
how our study can be useful in implementing the European
Water Framework Directive.