%0 DATA
%A Joshua, Weitz
%D 2020
%T COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planner
%U https://figshare.com/articles/COVID-19_Event_Risk_Assessment_Planner/11965533
%R 10.6084/m9.figshare.11965533.v1
%2 https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/21967428
%2 https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/21967431
%K coronavirus
%K COVID-19
%K social distancing
%K epidemics
%K outbreaks
%K virus
%K infectious disease
%K public health
%X Charts that provide estimates of the probability (i.e., the 'risk') that one or more individuals who are COVID-19 positive are at an event of size n (x-axis). The y-axis makes different assumptions about the number of circulating cases in the USA (I). The main chart uses lines of constant 'risk', i.e., 1%, 2%, 10%, 50% and 90% for combinations of n and I. Two scenarios are then considered (I=2,000 and I=20,000) such that the risk for events of different sizes n can be read off the corresponding horizontal lines.

Key note: the chart assumes homogeneous incidence. In reality, risk is heterogeneous, though significant uncertainty exists on local prevalence of COVID-19 as of 3/10/2020.

Joshua S. Weitz, jsweitz@gatech.edu, http://ecotheory.biology.gatech.edu